On May 16, 2025, Moody’s lowered the US’ credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, prompting further concern about the national debt. Moody’s lowered its rating because the national debt rapidly expanded due to ...

James K. Galbraith asks whether US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is right to urge the Federal Reserve to lower interest ...

We present new evidence on the impact of fiscal variables on long-term interest rates and term premia in the United States. To alleviate endogeneity problems, we follow the seminal methodology by ...

The U.S. federal government earned $27.0B more than it spent in June, compared with the -$41.5B deficit expected and the ...

You’ve no doubt heard the phrase, “Minsky Moment.” It refers to the ideas of economist Hyman Minsky, who studied financial ...

President Trump’s newly passed One Big Beautiful Bill Act will, by most conventional estimates, add trillions to America’s national debt to pay for permanent tax cuts. Republicans insist the bill ...

The federal budget deficit is back in the spotlight after the Republican-controlled Congress approved a massive tax and ...

The government budget constraint ties the market value of government debt to the expected risk-adjusted present discounted value of fiscal surpluses. We find evidence that U.S. Treasury investors fail ...

The national debt has increased under most U.S. presidents. Here is how much each president's time in office added to the U.S. debt by percentage and dollar amounts.

Global equity markets have recovered smartly from the lows in April 2025 that were triggered by US President Donald Trump’s ...

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office is required by law to provide economic analyses on major legislation.

The U.S. tax and spending bill passed on July 3 is expected to add more than $3 trillion to the country’s deficit over the ...